ASE reviews, updates, and develops employee handbooks. One recurring issue we continue to see is outdated “no gambling” language. Roughly one in six handbooks still includes this rule, often buried in the Standards of Conduct or Rules policy.

I often ask those employers whether, with legal online gambling now widely available, enforcing such a rule is realistic. Employees use their phones during lunch and breaks, and it is reasonable to assume some may place online wagers on games that interest them. In response, no employer I have raised this with has said they view gambling itself as wrong or so disruptive that it warrants a blanket prohibition. Some may hold that view, but it is not the feedback I typically receive.

I also point out that when an employer does not enforce a stated rule, it undermines the credibility of that policy and others the organization may want to enforce.

Recently, I came across a no-gambling rule in the employee handbook of a religious organization. To gauge their perspective, I noted that these rules often feel outdated given how common online gambling has become, while acknowledging they may have moral concerns. The response from the organization’s leader was telling. “Mike,” he said, “you have heard of bingo, haven’t you?”

However, just last week I was forwarded an article about prediction markets. What are prediction markets? The article by Steve Silver, who is an attorney with Littler Mendelson law firm, states that “prediction markets allow anyone to wager on literally anything at any time from a mobile device or computer.” He further explains that “users can bet on the outcome of future events by buying and selling shares in the predicted outcomes or the likelihood of those events like sports results, elections, or entertainment awards”, etc. If their prediction comes true, they win money.

Okay, so what?

What makes one start re-thinking the whole issue of workplace gambling in light of these prediction markets is, Mr. Silver points out, that real money (it was estimated approximately $28 billion) was traded on the prediction markets this year alone. The wagers were on such things as:

• “The date a private company’s CEO will resign
• The date a tech company’s new app will launch
• What key words will be said during a national retailer’s quarterly earnings call
• Which companies will announce an IPO in 2026
• What flavor a tobacco company will launch this month”

Again, so what? Well, this is where things start to get darker.

First, this type of “gambling” has been made legal recently because the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) decided to take a hands-off regulatory approach to prediction market activity.

Silver points out that the employees that may engage in or even set up a prediction market “wager” may know information about an event or activity beforehand. In other words, they are “insiders.” They (or their friends and family) may look to profit from this information on the online prediction market.

Silver points out that employers should not rely on old fashioned confidentiality agreements to prevent sensitive information from being used in the prediction markets. He notes that currently most employees may not even connect what they know about a company to the potential legal risks involved from trying to capitalize on insider information.

Employers will want to revisit some of their policies such as the Confidentiality, Conflict of Interest, and the Internet and Mobile Device Use policies to better explain what is meant by those policies in the context of this new form of online prediction market “gambling.”

The author of this article goes on to suggest that employers may be forced to even monitor the prediction markets for wagers on company information.  He states that although users of this market have some anonymity, if there are “large swings on discrete events” this can be a tell that some company confidential information “is in play,” so to speak.

Going forward, it may still make sense to keep a general “no gambling while at work” rule. However, until government agencies revisit their guidance, employers may need to update that policy and related provisions to clarify that certain forms of online wagering, including activity in prediction markets that relies on company or work-related information, are not permitted.

Such activity may not only violate company policy but could also run afoul of the law under the CFTC and potentially the Securities and Exchange Commission, if and when those agencies take a closer look at prediction market activity.

ASE Connect

ASE Handbook Services: For help adding or updating gambling or non-disclosure policies, please contact Lauren Cromie.

Source: Littler Mendelson Blog. Prediction Markets Permit Employees to Wager on Anything at Any Time: What Employers Need to Know. Steve Silver (12/11/2025)