The verdict is not in yet.  Experts have always argued that technology improvements have always created new jobs while eliminating old ones, displacing but not replacing workers.  For example, the auto industry was a leader in robotics in the assembly of cars.  The type of jobs changed and workers (with union collaboration) had to be retrained for a new manufacturing future.  But the changes in technology are different today.  From fast food ordering to delivery drones to telephone customer service, artificial intelligence (AI) is taking over areas previously reserved for those with lower skills and replacing workers this time, not merely displacing them. 

Further, artificial jobs are also taking on the white-collar and higher paying jobs.  For example, FedEx is preparing for a new future that doesn’t need as many pilots as in the past.  "They hope that by 2020 they will have a pilot center with three or four pilots that fly the FedEx fleet [of hundreds of planes] around the country," said Frank Tobe, editor and publisher of The Robot Report, a publication that tracks and analyzes the robot industry. A 2015 study of pilots found those operating Boeing 777s spent just seven minutes manually piloting their planes in a typical flight versus those operating Airbus planes that spent half that time.  Soon R2D2 and others like it could be piloting all planes with minimum assistance by humans.

IBM’s Watson is a good example of a disruption in the medical industry.  If Watson becomes more efficient in self-learning, its autonomous technology could take on the role of the Internist in medicine. For example, oncologists from Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center have been sharing their expertise with the system, so that Watson can support doctors developing patient treatment paths. In another field, insurance claims, four Japanese insurance companies have automated 80% of their health claims using Watson.

One of the most important issues raised by AI is its impact on jobs and the economy.  A September 2016 report by Forrester believes that robots will eliminate 6% of all jobs in the US, starting with customer service representatives and eventually truck and taxi drivers. “By 2021 a disruptive tidal wave will begin. Solutions powered by AI/cognitive technology will displace jobs, with the biggest impact felt in transportation, logistics, customer service and consumer services,” said Forrester’s Brian Hopkins in the report.  It is also likely big increases in minimum wage will be a driver of automation.  As appointed Secretary of Labor Andy Puzder stated in the past, wages rising too fast will be the catalyst for employers to speed up automation of their workplaces.

If human jobs disappear, it will have a profound impact on the economy and the population.  “Six percent is huge. In an economy that’s really not creating regular full-time jobs, the ability of people to easily find new employment is going to diminish. So we will have people wanting to work and struggling to find jobs because the same trends are beginning to occur in other historically richer job creation areas like banking, retail and healthcare,” said Andy Stern, the former president of the Service Employees International Union.

But this may be a worst case scenario.  In the gas station industry, with self-serve pumps, many jobs were lost, but at the same time more jobs were created.  To make the self-service pumps, manufacturers hired software coders, engineers, and other jobs. Station owners saved money and reinvested into mini-marts, which needed clerks, and built more gas stations, which needed more pumps which fueled even more hiring by the manufacturers. 

Although AI can predict what someone, for example, may want to see on Facebook based on previous “likes,” experts believe that it can’t predict if someone would like something different or what that may be.  Many experts believe that AI will be a collaborator, not a competitor.  For example, it could sift through enormous amounts of data in seconds that would take weeks of research to correlate, allowing the person to work on other issues more efficiently.  It could be surmised that many jobs in HR, especially in recruitment, compensation and benefits, will likely be disrupted, but it will likely not replace human judgement that is needed with the grayness of issues that arise daily.

In the long run the real issue is whether people whose jobs may or will be disrupted can shift their paradigm, retrain and take on new jobs.  The jobs should be there; it just a question of which ones and whether a workforce is available to meet the demand.  If not, the solution may be more AI. 

Source:  Newsweek 11/31/16, Forbes 8/29/16, The Guardian 9/13/16, InTheBlack 7/1/15, Fortune 2/26/15