RSQE, a modeling and forecasting unit that has been in operation at the University of Michigan since 1952, released Michigan’s economic forecast for 2024-2025 last month. I was happy to see that they predict steady job growth, low unemployment, and continued progress toward lower inflation.

Some of the other highlights include:

• Michigan’s payroll job count recovered from last fall’s strike in the auto industry in December.
• The state added 9,400 jobs from January to March 2024.
• The state’s labor force participation rate has hovered in the 62.2–62.3% range every month since last July.
• Blue-collar industries are predicted to finish the forecast period 5.3% above their pre-pandemic job count.
• Michigan’s labor force participation rate has increased by 3.1 percentage points from the beginning of 2021 to March 2024, which puts the state’s labor force participation rate 0.4 percentage points higher than its 2019 level.
• Michigan’s labor force participation rate is forecasted to increase from 61.9% in 2023 to 62.4% in 2024 and 62.7% in 2025.
• However, Michigan’s aging workforce will eventually limit and reverse progress on labor force participation.
• After holding steady in 2022, Michigan’s personal income per capita increased by 4.7% on a calendar year basis in 2023. However, they predict income growth to slow to 3.0% this year as job growth moderates in the state.
• Local core inflation is projected to drop to 2.8% in 2024, essentially even with the headline rate. Local core inflation then inches above the headline rate by two-tenths of a percentage point in 2025, as core inflation slightly outpaces gasoline and food prices.

Overall, I feel this is a fairly positive outlook for the state of Michigan.  While job growth is a positive indicator, the unemployment rate remains low, so organizations will likely still face challenges in finding available talent.

To full report can be found here.